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Book
Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484394933 1484390067 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.


Book
Trade Tensions, Global Value Chains, and Spillovers : Insights for Europe
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1498319033 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Europe is deeply integrated into global value chains and recent trade tensions raise the question of how European economies would be affected by the introduction of tariffs or other trade barriers. This paper estimates the impact of trade shocks and growth spillovers using value added measures to better gauge the associated costs across European countries.

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